Seismic risk reduction
The goal of the seismic risk reduction project is to enhance community safety and improve the functionality of the emergency management system during an earthquake in the seven involved regions.
Models and evaluation methods developed by the Department as part of the 2014–2020 National Operational Programme on Governance and Institutional Capacity (PON) will be applied to the Optimal Territorial Areas (ATOs), as outlined in the Civil Protection Code.
The Territorial Areas serve as the primary reference for activities related to civil protection planning. They are essential for identifying and analyzing the structural emergency management system, as well as evaluating its operability. This includes assessing the efficiency of structures and infrastructure during a crisis.
The following section details the micro-activities of the project for seismic risk.
This activity begins by defining the boundaries of the Optimal Territorial Areas (ATOs). These areas encompass a group of neighboring municipalities where risk reduction activities for civil protection are conducted in a coordinated manner, specifically focusing on planning and emergency management.
The next step involves identifying the essential structures and infrastructures necessary for emergency management across all areas. This includes a set of key elements such as strategic buildings for coordination, medical assistance, and operational intervention; designated emergency areas for gathering vehicles, rescuers, and providing shelter for the population; and road infrastructures that ensure access and connectivity.
Essential structures and infrastructures are identified through an analysis of the Emergency Limit Condition (CLE). This tool helps determine the point at which an area affected by an earthquake, despite experiencing physical and functional damage, can still effectively manage the emergency. It ensures that the area maintains operability, accessibility, and connectivity.
Based on the CLE analysis of the Territorial Area, the optimal graph is identified, which represents the network of structures (nodes) and the connecting infrastructures (arcs) that are essential for managing seismic emergencies. It is not sufficient to simply identify which buildings are strategic; they must also be interconnected and accessible. Therefore, the model takes into account the length of the routes, travel times, and the likelihood that the roads will remain usable after an earthquake.
The seismic hazard of each Optimal Territorial Area is determined by evaluating both the base hazard and the local hazard. The base hazard assesses seismic shaking on rigid ground, taking into account factors such as earthquake magnitude and distance from the epicenter. In contrast, the local hazard is analyzed through Seismic Microzonation studies, which examine how ground characteristics—such as geology, the presence of slopes, and sandy soils—can amplify seismic effects. These studies also consider coseismic phenomena, including landslides and liquefaction.
To evaluate the resilience of the system in the event of an earthquake, the seismic vulnerability of key buildings is analyzed. This analysis employs "fragility curves," which are derived from statistical surveys and estimate the probability of a building sustaining different levels of damage as the earthquake's intensity increases. The analysis takes into account not only the strategic buildings but also the "interfering buildings." These are structures that, in the event of collapse, could obstruct access on connecting roads.
All collected data is integrated to determine an operability index for the Optimal Territorial Area. This index measures how effectively the system of essential structures and infrastructures can function after an earthquake. It allows for comparisons between different territories, identifies weak points, establishes intervention priorities, and evaluates the costs and benefits of potential investments.
The project goes beyond purely technical analysis; it aims to provide practical tools that assist Regions, Provinces, and Municipalities in enhancing seismic safety. For a specific set of Territorial Areas, intervention plans designed to increase the operability index will be simulated, along with an assessment of the necessary financial resources.
Finally, a regional seismic atlas will be developed for each area. This informative tool will be accessible to the regions and is designed to showcase the methodologies and results of the project activities. It will cover everything from the organizational model based on Territorial Areas to the enhancement of the emergency management system's operational efficiency.